On the burn rate of government

A few thoughts on the retirements of Andrews Government ministers James Merlino, Martin Foley, Lisa Neville, Martin Pakula. Not to forget the pending retirement of Richard Wynne (who's staying in the Cabinet until November).

Every government has a burn rate. #springst #auspol

— Joel Deane (@joeldeane) June 24, 2022

Many journalists measure a government's political burn rate in their political capital: meaning how they're travelling in the polls.

That's a fair measure. But the burn rate I'm thinking of is human.

The pace of government intensifies as each government ages.

— Joel Deane (@joeldeane) June 24, 2022

The perennial challenges continue (Budget rounds, pandemics, natural disasters, recessions, scandals), but they also accumulate.

Why? There's always unfinished business and that unfinished business mounts.

Plus, the grind of governing burns people out.

— Joel Deane (@joeldeane) June 24, 2022

The burn rate of people is the greatest challenge a long term government faces.

You need to keep finding, blooding and promoting new political and bureaucratic talent so that your government doesn't lose momentum.

That's hard to do.

— Joel Deane (@joeldeane) June 24, 2022

It's hard to renew Ministerial offices and the public service, but it can be done.

It's harder to do within a Caucus or Party room, but it must be done.

One of the reasons the Brumby Government lost in 2010 is that it (rather than Brumby) ran out of ideas.

It burned out.

— Joel Deane (@joeldeane) June 24, 2022

The Andrew Government is not heading down that path.

What this Government is doing is all about renewal.

A generation of politicians who have been at the frontline for up to 26 years (and must be feeling the burn) are stepping back.

That creates space for new blood.

— Joel Deane (@joeldeane) June 24, 2022

Will this changing of the vanguard of the Andrews Government make a difference at the polling booth?

I don't think so.

It might matter for individual seats, such as Richmond, but it won't change votes at a state-wide level.

Why? Victorians will be deciding between leaders.

— Joel Deane (@joeldeane) June 24, 2022

Voters will choose between Daniel Andrews and Matthew Guy. And, yes, many will opt for a third option, such as the Teal independents and Greens.

What does this tell us? Andrews is already preparing for his third term. His Government will not burn out on his watch.

— Joel Deane (@joeldeane) June 24, 2022